Climate change strategy 2022

The impact on Gateshead

UK winters are projected to become warmer and wetter on average, although cold and/or dry winters will still occur sometimes. Summers are projected to be come hotter and are more likely to be drier, although wetter summers are also possible. By 2050, heatwaves like that seen in 2019 are expected to happen every other year.

By 2070 we project:

• winter will be between 1 and 4.5 degrees Celsius warmer and up to 30 percent wetter
• summer will be between 1 and 6 degrees Celsius warmer and up to 60 percent drier

Heavy rainfall is also more likely. Since 1998, the UK has seen seven of the ten wettest years on record. Winter storms like we saw in 2015 are at least 40 percent more likely because of climate change. 

Climate change is already impacting on Gateshead with more regular flooding incidents and poor air quality. If the predicted temperature rise occurs, the frequency, pattern and severity of flooding are all expected to increase and become more damaging. The risk of flooding in the borough will increase given the rising sea levels, an increase in extreme rainfall, storm surge events and higher ground water levels.

In November 2018, Defra released a new set of UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) for the North East, sea levels are expected to increase by up to 50cm under the low emissions scenario, and up to 90cm under the high emissions scenario by 2100. Whilst it is not possible to predict or prevent all flooding, the council's Strategic Flood Risk Assessment provides a range of flood risk data (river, tidal, surface water, groundwater, mine water, sewer, historic events) which can help to identify parts of the borough which may be vulnerable to flooding in the future and where steps can be taken to reduce the risk and the impact of flooding.

The risk of flooding from the River Tyne, River Derwent and River Team is greatest in parts of the following areas:

• Dunston
• Teams
• Team Valley Trading Estate
• Lamesley
• Blackhall Mill
• Lintzford
• Derwenthaugh
• Blaydon
• Swalwell

Surface water flooding also affects hilly areas of the borough such as:

• Kibblesworth
• Chopwell
• Rowlands Gill
• Leam Lane
• Sunniside
• Clara Vale
• the upper area of Team Valley
• High Fell
• Felling
• Heworth

Climate change will impact on our ability to develop areas for jobs and homes due to potential flooding.

Thunder Thursday

On Thursday 28 June 2012, 50mm of rain fell across the North East in just two hours, the amount we would normally see for the whole month of June. In addition, 40mm fell in ninety minutes on Sunday 5 August 2012.

• our flood risk management team investigated over 300 reports of flooding, drainage and surface water problems
• detailed investigations were completed in 10 areas where 10 or more properties were flooded
• more than 250 properties had to be vacated through flooding and storm damage
• over 80 locations on Gateshead's roads were closed due to surface water flooding
• 75 locations were added to the council's flood register
• over 50 flood risk management or drainage improvement schemes were completed following the incidents
• while each flooding location was different, the level of rainfall was clearly the cause of the flooding

The summer floods in 2012 demonstrated the risks from over land surface water to both rural and urban communities where existing drainage systems could not cope. Flooding can have a devastating impact. For example, damage to property and critical infrastructure, costs to the economy, disruption to businesses, the transport network and community life and the health and wellbeing of residents.

Storms

Storm Arwen brought wind gusts up to 98 miles per hour (mph). This wind gust was the highest recorded in north-east England since 1984. The aftermath was devastating, three people died, thousands of trees were blown over, and more than a million homes lost power as lines were brought down. Scientists say climate emergency will make extreme weather events more likely. It is known that much of Earth's trapped heat goes into the sea and rising sea temperatures produce more energy for hurricanes and typhoons. Only a few months after Storm Arwen, Storm Eunice and Storm Franklin hit in the same week. This resulted in 177,000 claims made for damaged homes, business and vehicles.